Corona virus concerns.l

[stampie78]

Don't know if this is the right spot to put this thread. It has little to do with stamp collecting.

I received an e-mail from one of the administrators of the ISWSC trade circuits. He had in turn received e-mail from a member

wondering if the coronavirus could survive on letters (stamps) going through the mail system.

 Here is the administrators reply.

"MARCH 5, 2020 / 5:11 PM / CBS NEWS
While it is theoretically possible that the virus could be present on the surface of a package, experts say it wouldn't last long. Dr. Jack Caravanos, clinical professor of Environmental Public Health Sciences at the NYU School of Global Public Health, told CBS News on Thursday that it is "highly improbable" due to the length of the journey and the harsh conditions it would face en route.

The coronavirus has "some environmental longevity (hours to days) depending on temperature, surface conditions, time and humidity," Caravanos said. But as the World Health Organization explains, "it is very unlikely that the virus will persist on a surface after it has been moved, travelled, and exposed to different conditions and temperatures."

"At this time, I truly believe viral transmission by contaminated packages is very unlikely." Caravanos said. "I would not take any special precautions opening or handling packages or envelopes."

"I have not seen any evidence to support transmission of the new coronavirus through mail and experts universally feel that the risk of spread from mail or packaging that is shipped over a period of days or weeks at ambient temperatures is remote," Dr. Michael Merson, a dean's special adviser at the New York University School of Global Public Health, told CBS News on Thursday.

"Shipping conditions are usually not conducive to the virus remaining viable," he said. "The disease is spread primarily by respiratory droplets directly from one person to another and this should be our focus."

The World Health Organization puts it bluntly: "People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages."

Just wondering if any Stamp bears had any thoughts/suggestions/concerns about this virus.

Now with travel and freight stopped from Europe to US, does this include mail as well?

Any thought about postponing mailings to and from members?

Would be interested in your comments on this. Post them here.

[khj]

I would postpone mail to/from countries that have had significant impact (e.g., China, Iran, Italy...), not because of concerns of virus spread, but simply because of likely mail processing/delivery delays or even somebody tossing out batches because of unfounded concerns. Can't tell you how many times I've had to say, it's OK, you don't have to throw that package away, your mask won't really protect you because you don't have it over your nose, you can't keep re-using the same mask... In other words, they throw things away that they don't have to, but don't throw away the things they are supposed to!

There is almost always a non-zero possibility of anything happening. Even if there is a non-trivial probability, I still would not be concerned. The issue is whether there is a non-trivial risk, which factors in the actual likelihood of it happening under the range of typical conditions/situations. In science, in discovery/research phase, we always consider ideal conditions to see if it is "possible", and then try to do the experiment under the ideal/controlled environment. When considering actual risk, we consider "typical conditions", and so statistics comes into play. If the insurance industry only considered possibility/probability, nobody could ever afford insurance. But they consider actual risk based on actual statistics/demographics, and that is what makes insurance affordable (supposedly).

In a nutshell, the risk of an infected individual sneezing/coughing on your specific envelope (or by chance having an active virus on their hands when handling your envelope) out of thousands they are likely handling each day, then having the virus survive non-ideal conditions for the week-long overseas delivery, then you touching the right spot, then putting your finger to pick your nose or suck on your finger... well, you get the picture.

Medical personnel like my two sisters who are doctors, are at much higher risk simply because their possible overall exposure time is higher than most. Neither are taking any additional pre-cautions other than what they would for preventing transmission of the flu from their patients -- wash hands frequently or wear gloves when necessary, examine patients only in a well-ventilated room, do not re-use disposable supplies, 99% alcohol wipe of non-disposable equipment used between patients (sorry, the 60%+ hand sanitizers won't kill viruses in the short time you rub your hands, but you can't really use 91% alcohol either, so just wash your hands under running water for at least 20s)...

Some nurses and assistants, however, are scared to death. Some because they haven't been given adequate information or adequate supplies, but also some because they have not been diligent in adhering to their training on sterilization & patient protocol. The nurses I know are highly trained and have always been very careful in following protocol, regardless of how busy they get. They are not concerned any more than having to interact with a patient with the normal flu or cold.

I was really surprised to see Fauci warn that the number of COVID-19 cases in the US could go up into many millions, and supporting estimates of a half million deaths. Yes, there is a non-zero possibility of that happening, but realistically?!? I can't imagine any scenario where that is "likely" to happen unless there is a Presidential order for everyone to cough on another person at least once a day for the next month. The statistics don't support this statement being realistic. China, with 4x the population of the US, a far weaker health care system, much poorer ventilation housing/buildings, much higher urban densities... has <100K cases with a few thousand deaths and the mathematical model clearly shows COVID-19 has not only maxed out there, but is declining. Keep in mind, there is currently NO pill you can take get rid of COVID-19. The 60K cases that have had full recoveries are because their immune system got rid of the virus, not because of any antibiotic.

So, wash your hands, stay away from sneezing/coughing people, avoid being in confined spaces or poorly ventilated rooms with another person for prolonged periods (e.g., small rooms, motel/hotel rooms, cruises...), and keep fit. You'll be OK. If you are age 60+ or have compromised immune system, please please please be extra diligent.

To put things in perspective, and I'm only using the US statistics: 20-50 million people get the normal flu each year, ~20,000~60,000 die of the normal flu each year (that's only the US). Currently, only using statistics from China, 80,000+ cases, 3000+ deaths.

Of course, 1 death or even 1 illness is 1 too many. But, just trying to put things into perspective.

I guess I'm a little insensitive, having been a math science major, and having done mathematical modeling on AIDS in the mid-1980s. Virtually all diseases follow the basic model, and the model is quite accurate. That is why I am scratching my head because of all the fear-mongering by those who should know better. The statements being made today, are based on policy. Their purpose is primarily to alleviate concerns or heighten awareness. China, with it's very restrictive control of mobility, has demonstrated that containment is not the solution since it still got out. Therefore a policy of awareness is definitely better, so people take the proper precautions (which are the same as avoiding the normal flu). But scaring people into this through fear-tactics, may not be good in the long run. I'm reminded of Hurricane Katrina (everyone fled here and it didn't hit here, but the poorly enacted evacuation created a tremendous number of problems, including deaths). When Hurricane Harvey hit recently, few people evacuated when they should have -- over-scare people and they think they've been duped, they won't bite when you try to scare them again.

The economy in my city has taken a huge economic hit because of unfounded fears. Of course, I've done more restaurant dining and shopping in the past month than I have in the past 2 years because Chinatown is half-empty -- it's nice not having to deal with crowds and finding a parking space immediately!

JMO

[angore]

I wish we took the flu more seriously but then some refuse to get flu shots. You cannot fix people (some will always overreact) but the system should be prepared for possible events. The threat of a snow storm will empty grocery shelves around here.

There will always be a debate about precautions needed without inconveniencing people. But this disease is far more contagious and deadlier (percentage wise). Where is the balance?

[stampie78]

Mar 12, 2020 13:09:19 GMT -5 angore said:

I wish we took the flu more seriously but then some refuse to get flu shots. You cannot fix people (some will always overreact)

Up here we say "you can't fix stupid"  We haven't had a case here yet but the first one just showed up yesterday in the next province, so I guess it's just a matter of time before it gets here. We just do the regular "common sense" stuff and hope for the best. Not a lot more you can do.

We get our annual flu shots and I haven't had as much as a common cold for the last 15 years. But this new one is a whole new beast with no vaccine and no cure.

[khj]

There's no vaccine nor cure for the common cold either. Guess what causes ~20% of the common cold -- coronaviruses!

[khj]

I admit, I didn't start getting the flu shot until I was 50. I've always been one of those who doesn't get sick much -- although I make up for it by having incurable chronic diseases and migraines .

Once I got to 50, I decided it wasn't worth betting against the statistics. (not to mention one of my doctor sisters decided to stab me with a hollow metal pointy thingie when I got to 50 )

[khj]

At least one good thing might come of all the pre-emptive precautions, if not more good things: with all the additional precautions, illness & deaths from the normal flu might be a lot less this season.

[kacyds]

I posted this on Facebook and decided to post it here, since most of you wont see it...

Went to Walmart today, in Harahan, to pick up a few things we needed and I was shocked by the empty shelves in the store.

Here are a few things, I noticed, that was completely out...

1. Yeah, like everyone has mentioned, no toilet paper. Guess people are now wiping their ass. Why start now if you haven't been doing it all these years. Glad I wont be smelling ass for the near future.

2. No paper towels, napkins, trash bags or cleaning supply. People don't have anything to do now, since everything is shutting down, so they must be cleaning house. Now when I walk the dog in the neighborhood, I will think that I am in a pine forest with all the Pine-Sol I will be smelling.

3. In the health/beauty department, vitamins and deodorant are wiped out. NOW you want to think about your health and start smelling good. Yeah okay.

4. No detergent and bleach. Maybe I can understand being out of bleach, but detergent. So you haven't been washing clothes for all these years and all of a sudden, everyone says lets start now??? Clean clothes, using deodorant and wiping your ass, everyone should be a pleasant to be around.

5. Sugar and eggs. Who in the world hoards these??? How long do you plan to store those eggs? They must know something I don't.

6. Pet supplies, especially cat litter and dog and cat food. All of a sudden people are remembering to take care of their animals? I don't get this one at all.

7. Soup, can vegetables, rice, tuna, canned meats, and other essentials. Maybe people are getting a jump start for the upcoming hurricane season. I sure hope so!!!

8. Bread and deli meat. The bread aisle was wiped out. While I was there, I saw a couple of people rolling in stacks of bread. I saw one lady grab 8 loaves. Yeah, 8 freaking loaves. Maybe she was making sandwiches for the neighborhood. But, but, but..... there is not any deli meat to put on that bread.

A few things I noticed that was limited.... Orange juice, cereal and chips. I picked up the last two boxes of Peanut Butter and Chocolate Cheerios. Sorry if you were looking for some.

Now a couple of things that I thought that would be wiped out, but were fully supplied. COFFEE and ALCOHOL. Its good to know that they are stocking these two items daily and they wont run out. Then again, most New Orleanians probably have a 6 months supply already. I know I do....

[khj]

Mar 14, 2020 17:25:03 GMT -5 kacyds said:

Now a couple of things that I thought that would be wiped out, but were fully supplied. COFFEE and ALCOHOL. Its good to know that they are stocking these two items daily and they wont run out. Then again, most New Orleanians probably have a 6 months supply already. I know I do....

[youpiao]

I was at Winco today. They had TP, and I saw a few sections that were sparsely stocked with product. But there was only one section I saw where the shelves were completely devoid of product - Ramen noodles. The snack chip shelves were full. Crazy.

[khj]

I see Fauci has backtracked considerably from his earlier statements made just last week. Even though the situation in the US has gotten significantly worse (as expected), he now says officially:

Coronavirus expert Dr. Anthony Fauci said:
"These kind of things generally run out in a few months. Hopefully, we'll make it several weeks. Eight, nine, whatever weeks, but I can't give you a number, because it depends on how successful we are" (with mitigation and containment measures). Earlier today, Dr. Fauci had said that:

It’s certainly going to get worse before it gets better
Crisis will last for at least several weeks and possibly 2 months or more
Complete shut down like in Italy and China is not off the table. "We just have to respond as things evolve over the days and over the weeks"

These are the types of statements that are within "reason" based on empirical evidence and past models updated appropriately for COVID-19 mortality/transmission rates, which is what I normally expect from him. Hopefully, this thing will follow the typical trend of these types of viruses, as his changed tone calmly now states and not the extremely remote possibility worse case scenario that he was hyping earlier. Glad he finally sat down after all those interviews and look at all the numbers & tracks and realized, oh wait... But he was able to get the President & Congress to get things in motion, which is good and important for all.

Meanwhile, the suffering and death continues. Let's keep vigilant and careful. Remember, whatever you should be doing to avoid the flu (washing hands with soap/water, avoiding sick/coughing/sneezing people...) you should practice to avoid getting COVID-19. Every once in awhile, reason is actually the most effective tool in combating virus spread, as it makes people focus on things that are actually effective, rather than panic actions.

Quite frankly, no telling how many people picked up the COVID-19 or the flu from all crowded rush to stores, going through the same public check-out lines as hundreds of others, touching the same this/that (like the credit card reader), and then scratching their noses or rubbing across their upper/lower lip. One of the reasons why some of the other Asian countries were able to really contain their outbreaks quickly without outlawing large meetings: people wore gloves when shopping or touching public equipment (e.g. handrails, grips, ATM machines...) and while those masks they wore when outdoors may not have been N95, they did keep people from scratching their mouth/nose/nostrils! Personally, I've avoided all shopping in the past week. I don't eat that much anyway, so I can ration my 5 bags of M&M's through 2-3 months if necessary.

Stay calm and active even at home to keep your mind off unnecessasry anxiety (yeah, we have our stamps ). From WHO:

ADVICE FOR YOUR MENTAL HEALTH FROM WHO

"Minimize watching, reading or listening to news that causes you to feel anxious or distressed; seek information only from trusted sources and mainly to take practical steps to prepare your plans and protect yourself and loved ones. Seek information updates at specific times during the day, once or twice. The sudden and near-constant stream of news reports about an outbreak can cause anyone to feel worried" WHO: Mental Health and Psychosocial Considerations During COVID-19 Outbreak

[khj]

I've got ulcerative colitis. I always have plenty of TP.

[Butterfly]

K-12 schools all closed yesterday in Oregon, along with nearly all meetings. My Habitat Restore is closed and the local Spring plant sales are now all history. Today I went to the library and, yes, it also was closed. My trip to the grocery store was the usual shocker.....TP, etc. gone, but also lettuce, tomatoes, broccoli, cauliflower, even Kale! was gone.
Perhaps people now have nothing left to do but go shopping???

[khj]

Which is why I have time to play study stamps today! Isn't it great when life doesn't get in the way!

[khj]

I just got an automated call from the school district, one of the largest in the nation. Usually I hate these automated calls. But this time, they are offering free food distribution (not talking about free lunch program, but actual food distribution). Since they cancelled schools until the end of the month and the food is already stockpiled, it makes sense and really benefits the community. Nice to see the school district taking the proactive approach to helping the community.

Of course, the adults will probably toss most of the food and understand why their kids keep throwing away so much "healthy" food. No doubt the pizza will still be consumed. When I pick up my daughter, the only time she munches on the free lunch remainders is when it's burritos or pizza.

[coastwatcher]

Rural Southeastern Kentucky, where I live, hasn’t been affected as badly as other parts of the nation...yet. Yesterday, the school system where my youngest daughter began teaching last year declared that, as of Monday, school would be closed until April 10. Also, the college where she is taking a night class towards her Masters has announced that spring break, which was supposed to have ended on Friday, will continue on until March 22. As she still lives at home and sometimes helps me with my stamps, I might be able to get caught up a little!

[khj]

CDC updated its guidelines yesterday, suggesting no public gatherings of 50 or more people (schools, businesses... not included). Today, President Trump held a press conference recommending no gatherings of 10 or more people anywhere.


The OCD mathematician in me just had to notice there were at least 34 people in the Press Room at the time...

k

Stay safe, healthy, and stampy everybody!

[sforgca]

35 before the 10 limit was announced and those wise enough to be well separated and not even siting behind each other
Those on the stage however seem to not be into social distancing
Mind you there is new strong evidence that skin contact or droplets from coughing etc may not be the big problem. The way it has spread may indicate it is an aerosol (airborne) transmitted virus - something not discussed
If so far worse may yet happen.